'Toy Story 3' Best Pic Oscar: Yes, We Can! Or Not Quite Yet?

Blogger Pete Hammond's got a friend in Disney chairman Rich Ross, who gave him a story on the historic, characteristically massive, perhaps 20-ad campaign to make Toy Story 3 the first-ever animated best picture Oscar winner. Last year, Up won best animated film, but had to settle for a nom, but no win, in the best picture category.

Ingeniously, Ross reasons that if Silence of the Lambs broke Oscar's horror of horror movies, Lord of the Rings the anti-fantasy barrier and Godfather II the sequel aversion, why can't a film with 100% rave reviews by Rottentomatoes' Top Critics and grosses that could exceed the gross domestic product of Greenland beat the anti-animation barrier?

But hard as it is to find a critic who didn't like Toy Story 3, it's harder to find anyone outside the studio who thinks it can win best picture (or lose best animated feature). An actor or other human-dependent Oscar voter who votes for animation is like a turkey that votes for Thanksgiving, and Oscar is also bigoted against comedy, however grounded in deeper emotion. "When you do comedy, you're not sitting at the grown-ups' table," as Woody Allen said. Oscar voters want to feel awash in elevating emotion. It helps if a movie seems like some kind of artistic breakthrough, not just a superb extension of a franchise.

And yet, Ross' ad spend won't be wasted. By breaking into the enchanted best-picture nominee circle in 1991, Beauty and the Beast changed Academy presumptions. To make something happen, you first must convince people it can happen. And shocking things can happen when minds start changing. Who could've imagined how fast gay marriage or legally taxed marijuana became politically imaginable?

I would compare Toy Story 3's direct assault on the best picture castle to Shirley Chisholm's 1972 candidacy for president. She didn't win, but she ultimately made President Obama thinkable.

Toy Story 3 makers could paraphrase Chisholm's campaign announcement: "I stand before you today as a candidate for best picture.

I am not the candidate of animated Hollywood, although I am animated and proud.

I am not the candidate of Hollywood comedy, although I am funny, and I am equally proud of that.

I am not the candidate of any political bosses or fat cats or special interests. (Oops -- I guess I am.)

I am the candidate of the people of America. And my presence before you now symbolizes a new era in American entertainment history."

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'Toy Story 3,' 'How to Train Your Dragon' on Oscar Shortlist for Animated Film

There will be no more than three animated movies nominated in the best animated feature category at this year's Oscars since only 15 films have been accepted for consideration.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences released its list of qualifying films Monday: They include Pixar's Toy Story 3, DreamWorks Animations' How to Train Your Dragon, Shrek Forever After and Megamind, Disney's Tangled and Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy Rescue, Warners' Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore and Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole, Universal's Despicable Me, Lionsgate's Alpha and Omega, New Yorker Films' My Dog Tulip and Sony Pictures Classics' The Illusionist.

The list also includes director Bill Plympton's indie-produced Idiots and Angels, the Chinese-produced The Dreams of Jinshaand the Japanese-produced Summer Wars.

Under the rules for the category, in any year in which eight to 15 animated features are released in Los Angeles County, a maximum of three motion pictures may be nominated. In order to trigger a potential five nominees, 16 films would have had to have qualified.

Last year, by contrast, 20 films qualified, and so five movies were nominated. The category, created in 2001, had expanded to five nominees only once before that -- for the films of 2002.

Facing the fact that there will be three, rather than five, eventual nominees will be a blow for some of the contenders. While Toy Story is widely considered the favorite in the race, and it is assumed by many that both it and Dragon are likely to secure nominations, a five-nominee field would have allowed several other movies to bask in the limelight of a nomination. Instead, they're likely to find themselves scrambling for one of the three available slots.

While the current list of qualifiers have met the submission requirements, and after review were also found to have met the technical requirements, four of the movies -- Jinsha, Illusionist, Summer and Tangled -- must still play one-week qualifying runs in Los Angeles County by the end of the year.

Nominations for the 83rd Academy Awards will be announced Jan. 25.

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